Forecasting in the light of Big Data

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on the first principles, and the naive inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the availability of unprecedented amounts of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithmic analytic techniques. The purpose of this note is to assess critically the role of big data in reshaping the key aspects of forecasting and in particular the claim that bigger data leads to better predictions. Drawing on the representative example of weather forecasts we argue that this is not generally the case. We conclude by suggesting that a clever and context-dependent compromise between modelling and quantitative analysis stands out as the best forecasting strategy, as anticipated nearly a century ago by Richardson and von Neumann

A Relational Event Approach to Modeling Behavioral Dynamics

This chapter provides an introduction to the analysis of relational event data (i.e., actions, interactions, or other events involving multiple actors that occur over time) within the R/statnet platform. We begin by reviewing the basics of relational event modeling, with an emphasis on models with piecewise constant hazards. We then discuss estimation for dyadic and more general relational event models using the relevent package, with an emphasis on hands-on applications of the methods and interpretation of results. Statnet is a collection of packages for the R statistical computing system that supports the representation, manipulation, visualization, modeling, simulation, and analysis of relational data. Statnet packages are contributed by a team of volunteer developers, and are made freely available under the GNU Public License. These packages are written for the R statistical computing environment, and can be used with any computing platform that supports R (including Windows, Linux, and Mac).

Biological and technical variables affecting immunoassay recovery of cytokines from human serum and simulated vaginal fluid: A multicenter study

The increase of proinflammatory cytokines in vaginal secretions may serve as a surrogate marker of unwanted inflammatory reaction to microbicide products topically applied for the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV-1. Interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 have been proposed as indicators of inflammation and increased risk of HIV-1 transmission; however, the lack of information regarding detection platforms optimal for vaginal fluids and interlaboratory variation limit their use for microbicide evaluation and other clinical applications. This study examines fluid matrix variants relevant to vaginal sampling techniques and proposes a model for interlaboratory comparisons across current cytokine detection technologies. IL-1β and IL-6 standards were measured by 12 laboratories in four countries, using 14 immunoassays and four detection platforms based on absorbance, chemiluminescence, electrochemiluminescence, and fluorescence. International reference preparations of cytokines with defined biological activity were spiked into (1) a defined medium simulating the composition of human vaginal fluid at pH 4.5 and 7.2, (2) physiologic salt solutions (phosphate-buffered saline and saline) commonly used for vaginal lavage sampling in clinical studies of cytokines, and (3) human blood serum. Assays were assessed for reproducibility, linearity, accuracy, and significantly detectable fold difference in cytokine level. Factors with significant impact on cytokine recovery were determined by Kruskal−Wallis analysis of variance with Dunn’s multiple comparison test and multiple regression models. All assays showed acceptable intra-assay reproducibility; however, most were associated with significant interlaboratory variation. The smallest reliably detectable cytokine differences (P < 0.05) derived from pooled interlaboratory data varied from 1.5- to 26-fold depending on assay, cytokine, and matrix type. IL-6 but not IL-1β determinations were lower in both saline and phosphate-buffered saline as compared to vaginal fluid matrix, with no significant effect of pH. The (electro)chemiluminescence-based assays were most discriminative and consistently detected <2-fold differences within each matrix type. The Luminex-based assays were less discriminative with lower reproducibility between laboratories. These results suggest the need for uniform vaginal sampling techniques and a better understanding of immunoassay platform differences and cross-validation before the biological significance of cytokine variations can be validated in clinical trials. This investigation provides the first standardized analytic approach for assessing differences in mucosal cytokine levels and may improve strategies for monitoring immune responses at the vaginal mucosal interface

Evaluation of the zucker diabetic fatty (ZDF) rat as a model for human disease based on urinary peptidomic profiles

Representative animal models for diabetes-associated vascular complications are extremely relevant in assessing potential therapeutic drugs. While several rodent models for type 2 diabetes (T2D) are available, their relevance in recapitulating renal and cardiovascular features of diabetes in man is not entirely clear. Here we evaluate at the molecular level the similarity between Zucker diabetic fatty (ZDF) rats, as a model of T2D-associated vascular complications, and human disease by urinary proteome analysis. Urine analysis of ZDF rats at early and late stages of disease compared to age- matched LEAN rats identified 180 peptides as potentially associated with diabetes complications. Overlaps with human chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) biomarkers were observed, corresponding to proteins marking kidney damage (eg albumin, alpha-1 antitrypsin) or related to disease development (collagen). Concordance in regulation of these peptides in rats versus humans was more pronounced in the CVD compared to the CKD panels. In addition, disease-associated predicted protease activities in ZDF rats showed higher similarities to the predicted activities in human CVD. Based on urinary peptidomic analysis, the ZDF rat model displays similarity to human CVD but might not be the most appropriate model to display human CKD on a molecular level

A Review of the Wide Range of Indications and Uses of Implantable Loop Recorders: A Review of the Literature

Implantable loop recorders (ILR) are devices that are implanted subcutaneously on the chest, which enables the continuous monitoring of arrhythmias for up to three years. These devices have an important role in helping to make a diagnosis and supporting decisions about the best patient management. There are currently three companies that produce ILRs. The Reveal DX and XT device is produced by Medtronic. The Confirm device is produced by Abbott. The Biomonitor III device is produced by Biotronik. The established indications for ILR include the management of transient loss of consciousness and the diagnosis of undocumented palpitations; however, they are also used for less established applications, including atrial fibrillation (AF) monitoring and risk stratification in patients with previous myocardial infarction or inherited cardiomyopathies. There is also diverse literature exploring the use of these devices in other populations, including patients with conditions such as congenital heart disease, amyloidosis, stroke, obstructive sleep apnea, renal transplant and patients who undergo procedures such as AF ablation and coronary artery bypass graft. In this review, we describe how the use of ILR has been applied in different settings, including patients with cardiac and non-cardiac conditions as well as post-cardiac procedures. We then discuss the potential issues related to using ILR in these other indications.</jats:p

Thalamic haemorrhage vs internal capsule-basal ganglia haemorrhage: clinical profile and predictors of in-hospital mortality

Background: There is a paucity of clinical studies focused specifically on intracerebral haemorrhages of subcortical topography, a subject matter of interest to clinicians involved in stroke management. This single centre, retrospective study was conducted with the following objectives: a) to describe the aetiological, clinical and prognostic characteristics of patients with thalamic haemorrhage as compared with that of patients with internal capsule-basal ganglia haemorrhage, and b) to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with thalamic haemorrhage. Methods: Forty-seven patients with thalamic haemorrhage were included in the '' Sagrat Cor Hospital of Barcelona Stroke Registry '' during a period of 17 years. Data from stroke patients are entered in the stroke registry following a standardized protocol with 161 items regarding demographics, risk factors, clinical features, laboratory and neuroimaging data, complications and outcome. The region of the intracranial haemorrhage was identified on computerized tomographic (CT) scans and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain. Results: Thalamic haemorrhage accounted for 1.4% of all cases of stroke (n = 3420) and 13% of intracerebral haemorrhage (n = 364). Hypertension (53.2%), vascular malformations (6.4%), haematological conditions (4.3%) and anticoagulation (2.1%) were the main causes of thalamic haemorrhage. In-hospital mortality was 19% (n = 9). Sensory deficit, speech disturbances and lacunar syndrome were significantly associated with thalamic haemorrhage, whereas altered consciousness (odds ratio [OR] = 39.56), intraventricular involvement (OR = 24.74) and age (OR = 1.23), were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: One in 8 patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage had a thalamic hematoma. Altered consciousness, intraventricular extension of the hematoma and advanced age were determinants of a poor early outcome

Virtual environments as memory training devices in navigational tasks for older adults.

Cognitive training approaches using virtual environments (VEs) might counter age-related visuospatial memory decline and associated difficulties in wayfinding. However, the effects of the visual design of a VE in route learning are not fully understood. Therefore, we created a custom-designed VE optimized for route learning, with adjusted levels of realism and highlighted landmark locations (MixedVE). Herein we tested participants' route recall performance in identifying direction of turn at the intersection with this MixedVE against two baseline alternatives (AbstractVE, RealisticVE). An older vs. a younger group solved the tasks in two stages (immediate vs. delayed recall by one week). Our results demonstrate that the MixedVE facilitates better recall accuracy than the other two VEs for both age groups. Importantly, this pattern persists a week later. Additionally, our older participants were mostly overconfident in their route recall performance, but the MixedVE moderated this potentially detrimental overconfidence. Before the experiment, participants clearly preferred the RealisticVE, whereas after the experiment, most of the younger, and many of the older participants, preferred the MixedVE. Taken together, our findings provide insights into the importance of tailoring visualization design in route learning with VEs. Furthermore, we demonstrate the great potential of the MixedVE and by extension, of similar VEs as memory training devices for route learning, especially for older participants

The role of the right temporoparietal junction in perceptual conflict: detection or resolution?

The right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) is a polysensory cortical area that plays a key role in perception and awareness. Neuroimaging evidence shows activation of rTPJ in intersensory and sensorimotor conflict situations, but it remains unclear whether this activity reflects detection or resolution of such conflicts. To address this question, we manipulated the relationship between touch and vision using the so-called mirror-box illusion. Participants' hands lay on either side of a mirror, which occluded their left hand and reflected their right hand, but created the illusion that they were looking directly at their left hand. The experimenter simultaneously touched either the middle (D3) or the ring finger (D4) of each hand. Participants judged, which finger was touched on their occluded left hand. The visual stimulus corresponding to the touch on the right hand was therefore either congruent (same finger as touch) or incongruent (different finger from touch) with the task-relevant touch on the left hand. Single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was delivered to the rTPJ immediately after touch. Accuracy in localizing the left touch was worse for D4 than for D3, particularly when visual stimulation was incongruent. However, following TMS, accuracy improved selectively for D4 in incongruent trials, suggesting that the effects of the conflicting visual information were reduced. These findings suggest a role of rTPJ in detecting, rather than resolving, intersensory conflict

Downregulation of uPAR and Cathepsin B Induces Apoptosis via Regulation of Bcl-2 and Bax and Inhibition of the PI3K/Akt Pathway in Gliomas

Glioma is the most commonly diagnosed primary brain tumor and is characterized by invasive and infiltrative behavior. uPAR and cathepsin B are known to be overexpressed in high-grade gliomas and are strongly correlated with invasive cancer phenotypes.In the present study, we observed that simultaneous downregulation of uPAR and cathepsin B induces upregulation of some pro-apoptotic genes and suppression of anti-apoptotic genes in human glioma cells. uPAR and cathepsin B (pCU)-downregulated cells exhibited decreases in the Bcl-2/Bax ratio and initiated the collapse of mitochondrial membrane potential. We also observed that the broad caspase inhibitor, Z-Asp-2, 6-dichlorobenzoylmethylketone rescued pCU-induced apoptosis in U251 cells but not in 5310 cells. Immunoblot analysis of caspase-9 immunoprecipitates for Apaf-1 showed that uPAR and cathepsin B knockdown activated apoptosome complex formation in U251 cells. Downregulation of uPAR and cathepsin B also retarded nuclear translocation and interfered with DNA binding activity of CREB in both U251 and 5310 cells. Further western blotting analysis demonstrated that downregulation of uPAR and cathepsin B significantly decreased expression of the signaling molecules p-PDGFR-β, p-PI3K and p-Akt. An increase in the number of TUNEL-positive cells, increased Bax expression, and decreased Bcl-2 expression in nude mice brain tumor sections and brain tissue lysates confirm our in vitro results.In conclusion, RNAi-mediated downregulation of uPAR and cathepsin B initiates caspase-dependent mitochondrial apoptosis in U251 cells and caspase-independent mitochondrial apoptosis in 5310 cells. Thus, targeting uPAR and cathepsin B-mediated signaling using siRNA may serve as a novel therapeutic strategy for the treatment of gliomas

Automated versus manual post-processing of perfusion-CT data in patients with acute cerebral ischemia: influence on interobserver variability

The purpose of this study is to compare the variability of PCT results obtained by automatic selection of the arterial input function (AIF), venous output function (VOF) and symmetry axis versus manual selection. Imaging data from 30 PCT studies obtained as part of standard clinical stroke care at our institution in patients with suspected acute hemispheric ischemic stroke were retrospectively reviewed. Two observers performed the post-processing of 30 CTP datasets. Each observer processed the data twice, the first time employing manual selection of AIF, VOF and symmetry axis, and a second time using automated selection of these same parameters, with the user being allowed to adjust them whenever deemed appropriate. The volumes of infarct core and of total perfusion defect were recorded. The cerebral blood volume (CBV), cerebral blood flow (CBF), mean transit time (MTT) and blood-brain barrier permeability (BBBP) values in standardized regions of interest were recorded. Interobserver variability was quantified using the Bland and Altman's approach. Automated post-processing yielded lower coefficients of variation for the volume of the infarct core and the volume of the total perfusion defect (15.7% and 5.8%, respectively) compared to manual post-processing (31.0% and 12.2%, respectively). Automated post-processing yielded lower coefficients of variation for PCT values (11.3% for CBV, 9.7% for CBF, and 9.5% for MTT) compared to manual post-processing (23.7% for CBV, 32.8% for CBF, and 16.7% for MTT). Automated post-processing of PCT data improves interobserver agreement in measurements of CBV, CBF and MTT, as well as volume of infarct core and penumbra